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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OFI run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Volos NFC 4-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.23 xG and Volos NFC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 42%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, Volos NFC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.08 PPG, Volos NFC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights