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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.72 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Panserraikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 51% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 25%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 61%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.07 PPG, Panserraikos 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights