OFI 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
OFI at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Panetolikos have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for OFI, 1 for Panetolikos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended OFI 1–2 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 55% versus Panetolikos 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Panetolikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.211 / defence 1.061 | Panetolikos attack 0.755 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.220. Panetolikos's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from OFI's last 31 games and Panetolikos's last 31.
Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.31 | Draw 2.90 | Panetolikos 4.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG OFI 1.41 / Panetolikos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.211 / def 1.061 | Panetolikos attack 0.755 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Panetolikos xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 43% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 31 games and Panetolikos's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
43%
2.31
34%
2.90
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OFI xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Panetolikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 9W 16D 13L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 17L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 7D 4L from their last 19 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across their last 19 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
OFI (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 9W 16D 13L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.63 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won Panetolikos 0-4 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Panetolikos 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 58%, Panetolikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (OFI) and 47% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panetolikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Panetolikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of OFI's games and 53% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of OFI's recent matches and 74% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Panetolikos attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Panetolikos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.