OFI vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. OFI's 30% rate and Levadiakos's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Levadiakos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 66% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.68 xG and Levadiakos 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.042 / defence 0.920 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Data: 35 OFI games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 38% | xG OFI 1.68 / Levadiakos 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.042 / def 0.920 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: OFI (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Levadiakos xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 62% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (9 meetings): OFI 3W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 3W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.04) and Levadiakos's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.81
11%
8.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
OFI xG
Total xG
2.27
0.59
Levadiakos xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
8.81
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
2%
47.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for OFI and 0.59 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, OFI have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 4D 20L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 16W 10D 15L from 41 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.34 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (11W 1D 8L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.61 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 4D 20L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.70 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 35%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (OFI) and 55% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Levadiakos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of OFI's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of OFI's matches and 55% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.