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Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Levadiakos 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Levadiakos 3-2 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Levadiakos attack 1.28 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 64%, Levadiakos 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Levadiakos's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights