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Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 18, as OFI and Levadiakos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Levadiakos landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 59%, Levadiakos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.35 PPG, Levadiakos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights