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Poisson model rates OFI at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Levadiakos — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OFI) versus 1.30 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Levadiakos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OFI 59% and Levadiakos 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 59% | Levadiakos 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.170 / defence 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 1.135 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.210. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 OFI games / 17 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Levadiakos 88% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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