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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Larisa 3-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and Larisa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Larisa attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 47% | Draw 28% | Larisa 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 73%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Larisa's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.18 PPG, Larisa 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights