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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 2.00 xG and Lamia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 1.44, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 62% | Draw 21% | Lamia 17%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights