OFI 0-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ionikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ionikos — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ionikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OFI 0.70 PPG, Ionikos 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 1 for Ionikos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2022, ended OFI 2–3 Ionikos — a Ionikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus Ionikos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 49% | Ionikos 51%). Note also that Ionikos surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while OFI recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.845 / defence 1.061 | Ionikos attack 0.869 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.139. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.370 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Data: built from OFI's last 36 games and Ionikos's last 36.
Result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.38 | Draw 2.97 | Ionikos 4.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Ionikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG OFI 1.42 / Ionikos 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.845 / def 1.061 | Ionikos attack 0.869 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: OFI (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ionikos xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Ionikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Ionikos kick off?
OFI vs Ionikos kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Ionikos?
OFI 0 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is OFI vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Ionikos part of?
OFI vs Ionikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 42% chance of winning, Ionikos a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and Ionikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 36 games and Ionikos's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.97
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
OFI xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Ionikos xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for OFI and 1.05 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, OFI have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 12W 15D 16L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Ionikos's form line: 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.19 PPG, Ionikos on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 22 home games (6W 7D 9L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 6W 4D 12L from their last 22 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Ionikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Ionikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Ionikos away?
OFI's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.14 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Ionikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Ionikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2023: OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 64%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 50% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Ionikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of OFI's games and 54% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Ionikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Ionikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of OFI's recent matches and 82% of Ionikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ionikos outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Ionikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.37, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Ionikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 49%, Ionikos 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.19 PPG, Ionikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.