Ionikos 0-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to face Ionikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's home record at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ionikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias than their overall form suggests.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ionikos lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ionikos — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 57% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 50% | PAOK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.02 xG and PAOK 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.915 / defence 1.292 | PAOK attack 0.970 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.055. Data: 37 Ionikos games / 37 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | PAOK 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 80% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Ionikos 1.02 / PAOK 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.915 / def 1.292 | PAOK attack 0.970 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.32
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs PAOK kick off?
Ionikos vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs PAOK?
Ionikos 0 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Ionikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs PAOK part of?
Ionikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 25% chance of winning, PAOK a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ionikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAOK?
Record (2 meetings): Ionikos 1W | Draws 1 | PAOK 0W.
What form are Ionikos and PAOK in?
Ionikos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.92) and PAOK's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.97x) against Ionikos's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
25%
4.03
35%
2.82
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.34
1.32
PAOK xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ionikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.32 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Ionikos have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 13D 18L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 22W 11D 11L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ionikos have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while PAOK have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.29 PPG; PAOK away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ionikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PAOK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ionikos
1
Draws
2
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAOK?
From 4 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 1, PAOK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when PAOK 6-0 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 62%, PAOK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ionikos) and 38% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 33%; Ionikos have failed to score in 29% of games; PAOK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ionikos's recent matches and 48% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ionikos's recent games and 38% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PAOK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Ionikos 0-3 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.02 xG and PAOK 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ionikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against PAOK attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 50%, PAOK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.