OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 62%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for OFI, 5 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 65% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.079 / defence 0.821 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.992 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 0.919. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 OFI games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 11%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 9.09. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG OFI 1.93 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.079 / def 0.821 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.992 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.434 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: OFI (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 62% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 4W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 5W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.08) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
62%
1.61
27%
3.70
11%
9.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
OFI xG
Total xG
2.67
0.75
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
9.27
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
2%
63.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for OFI and 0.75 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, OFI have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 4D 18L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 13W 14D 10L from 37 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.32 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (10W 1D 8L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.05 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 4D 18L in their last 37 games (1.32 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 14D 10L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.63 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.32 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 32%, Aris Thessalonikis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (OFI) and 42% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 26% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of OFI's recent matches and 47% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of OFI's recent games and 42% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.