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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 0-2 at Pankritio Stadium, Conference League Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 62%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.23 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights