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Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.01 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 24% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 49%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a OFI win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 58%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights