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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

OFI — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

OFI at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — OFI are significantly better at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OFI register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for OFI, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

OFI in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 58% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.01 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.916 / defence 1.271 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.030 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.175. Data: 30 OFI games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 24% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 49%. Fair-value odds: OFI 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.04. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.

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