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Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Levadiakos 1-2 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 34%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 52%, Panetolikos 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.33 PPG, Panetolikos 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights