🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Levadiakos at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Panetolikos encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Levadiakos have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.

Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Panetolikos away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Levadiakos's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 1W to 0W over the last 6 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Levadiakos winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 54% versus Panetolikos 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 52% | Panetolikos 21%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.922 / defence 1.180 | Panetolikos attack 0.813 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Panetolikos 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Panetolikos 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights