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Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.31 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.55 / defence 1.04 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.61, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 33% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 60%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights