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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out OFI 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat OFI 3-2 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.04 xG and OFI 1.23 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.26 / defence 1.07 against OFI attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, OFI 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.56 PPG, OFI 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights