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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 4-0 hammering of OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat OFI 4-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.08 xG and OFI 1.21 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 29/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 33% | Draw 28% | OFI 39%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, OFI 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

OFI's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.50 PPG, OFI 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights