Levadiakos 4-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 39%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Levadiakos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for OFI and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
OFI trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 53% | OFI 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.08 xG and OFI 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.035 / defence 1.110 | OFI attack 1.000 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.092. Data: 29 Levadiakos games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 28% | OFI 39%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | OFI 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 28% | OFI 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 1.08 / OFI 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.035 / def 1.110 | OFI attack 1.000 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: OFI (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.21
OFI xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Levadiakos 4 - 0 OFI.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 33% chance of winning, OFI a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (5 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 3 | OFI 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. OFI (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.03) and OFI's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.53
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.29
1.21
OFI xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.21 for OFI, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 9D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.21 PPG from 34 outings (11W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.50 PPG, OFI on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 7W 3D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.24 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 14W 9D 11L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or OFI away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.41 PPG; OFI away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
OFI see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, OFI 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Levadiakos) and 47% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 47% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Levadiakos's recent games and 47% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, OFI in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 4-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat OFI 4-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.08 xG and OFI 1.21 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 29/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 33% | Draw 28% | OFI 39%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, OFI 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.50 PPG, OFI 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.