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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Larisa 3-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.59 xG and Larisa 1.09 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Larisa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.48 / defence 1.08 against Larisa attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 70% | Draw 17% | Larisa 14%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 62%, Larisa 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Larisa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights