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Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos and Lamia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.67 xG and Lamia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 56% | Draw 24% | Lamia 20%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, Lamia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lamia's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights