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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Lamia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Levadiakos welcome Lamia to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Monday 28 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Levadiakos — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Levadiakos at Stadio Levadias this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Levadiakos carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Lamia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Levadiakos winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Lamia in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Lamia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | Lamia 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.67 xG and Lamia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.927 / defence 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.673 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 56% | Draw 24% | Lamia 20%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Lamia 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.

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