Levadiakos vs Kifisia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 39%, yet in-form Kifisia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kifisia travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kifisia are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Kifisia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kifisia trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus Kifisia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Kifisia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.32 xG and Kifisia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.741 / defence 0.939 | Kifisia attack 1.205 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kifisia have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 35 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 39% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Kifisia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kifisia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Kifisia 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 39% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Levadiakos 1.32 / Kifisia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.741 / def 0.939 | Kifisia attack 1.205 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kifisia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kifisia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kifisia part of?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 39% chance of winning, Kifisia a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Levadiakos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 1 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Kifisia in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Kifisia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.74x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.27
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.47
1.14
Kifisia xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.14 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 16W 10D 15L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kifisia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 15L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.41 PPG, Kifisia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 10W 4D 6L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kifisia's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.12 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Kifisia away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.70 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Kifisia runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
1
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
From 3 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Kifisia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Kifisia 0-0 Levadiakos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 45%, Kifisia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Levadiakos) and 60% (Kifisia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 30% of games; Kifisia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Levadiakos's games and 65% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Levadiakos's matches and 60% of Kifisia's.
Do Levadiakos and Kifisia tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.