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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kallithea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Kallithea 4-1 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Kallithea attack 0.77 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, Kallithea 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Kallithea's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.28 PPG, Kallithea 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Kallithea (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights