🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Levadiakos (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Kallithea.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kallithea make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.

Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Kallithea away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kallithea's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with Levadiakos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Kallithea half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Kallithea 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | Kallithea 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.923 / defence 1.181 | Kallithea attack 0.773 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 26 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Kallithea 3.70. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Kallithea 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights