Levadiakos vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levadiakos host Kalamata at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Levadia Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kalamata — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.10 PPG, Kalamata 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levadiakos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalamata in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Kalamata trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 0% versus Kalamata 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 25% | Kalamata 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.23 xG and Kalamata 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.750 / defence 1.267 | Kalamata attack 0.769 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Levadiakos games / 4 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 37% | Kalamata 23%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Kalamata 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Levadiakos 60% | Kalamata 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 37% | Kalamata 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 1.23 / Kalamata 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.750 / def 1.267 | Kalamata attack 0.769 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kalamata xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kalamata kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kalamata part of?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 40% chance of winning, Kalamata a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Kalamata (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.75) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
40%
2.51
37%
2.69
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
Kalamata xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.89 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalamata by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kalamata in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 0%, Kalamata 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Kalamata).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 75% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Kalamata tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.