Levadiakos vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 53%, yet in-form Kalamata provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levadiakos host Kalamata at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 4W 2D 4L at Levadia Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kalamata — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kalamata have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kalamata are 0.62 PPG ahead (1.22 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 89% of games.
Kalamata trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 0% | Kalamata 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 22% | Kalamata 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.63 xG and Kalamata 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.741 / defence 0.939 | Kalamata attack 0.938 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kalamata bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 9 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 53% | Draw 28% | Kalamata 19%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Kalamata 5.26. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalamata (1.22 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | Kalamata 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 53% | Draw 28% | Kalamata 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Levadiakos 1.63 / Kalamata 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.741 / def 0.939 | Kalamata attack 0.938 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kalamata xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kalamata kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kalamata part of?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 53% chance of winning, Kalamata a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levadiakos and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Kalamata (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.74) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.59
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.52
0.89
Kalamata xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
26.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.89 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalamata, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 4L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalamata by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalamata's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.56 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kalamata in 67%.
Defensively: Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Kalamata
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Kalamata away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Levadiakos 0% BTTS, Kalamata 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Kalamata).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games; Kalamata in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Kalamata tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.