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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Atromitos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Atromitos 1-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.49 xG and Atromitos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.35 / defence 1.18 against Atromitos attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 60%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Atromitos's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.53 PPG, Atromitos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights