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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.32 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.56 / defence 1.04 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 72% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 11%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 59%, Asteras Tripolis 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights