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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.21 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.50 / defence 0.81 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 67% | Draw 20% | Aris Thessalonikis 14%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.51 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights