🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Aris Thessalonikis 4-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.92 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 22/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 41%, Aris Thessalonikis 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Levadiakos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights