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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Larisa and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAOK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.32 against PAOK attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, PAOK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights