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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Larisa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Larisa 0-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.25 xG and Panserraikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Larisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 38% | Draw 32% | Panserraikos 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 40%, Panserraikos 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Panserraikos's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.80 PPG, Panserraikos 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights