Larisa 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Larisa face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AEL FC Arena plays host to Larisa versus Panetolikos in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 2). Kick-off: Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Larisa have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Larisa have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Panetolikos edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Feb 2026, ended Larisa 1–4 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 52% versus Panetolikos 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 37% | Panetolikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.88 xG and Panetolikos 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.769 / defence 1.273 | Panetolikos attack 0.801 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Larisa's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Larisa's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Data: built from Larisa's last 26 games and Panetolikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Larisa 27% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 38%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 3.72 | Draw 2.84 | Panetolikos 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Larisa's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Larisa 50% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 2 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 27% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Larisa 0.88 / Panetolikos 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.769 / def 1.273 | Panetolikos attack 0.801 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Panetolikos xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Larisa vs Panetolikos kick off?
Larisa vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Larisa 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Larisa vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Panetolikos part of?
Larisa vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 27% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Larisa and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Larisa vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Larisa's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.80x) against Larisa's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Larisa's last 26 games and Panetolikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
27%
3.72
35%
2.84
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Larisa xG
Total xG
1.96
1.08
Panetolikos xG
3.72
27%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Larisa and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Larisa and 1.08 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 11D 12L from 27 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 14L across 27 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Larisa against 1.00 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 6D 5L from their last 13 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Larisa are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.93 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
Larisa (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Larisa
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Larisa and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 11D 12L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.92 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Larisa on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Larisa
1
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panetolikos?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Larisa have won 0, Panetolikos have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Larisa and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Panetolikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 62%, Panetolikos 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Larisa and 15% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 31%; Panetolikos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Larisa and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Larisa's recent matches and 23% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Larisa and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Larisa's recent games and 15% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Larisa's recent matches and 62% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Larisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Larisa 1-2 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.88 xG and Panetolikos 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 27% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 38%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 37%, Panetolikos 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.85 PPG, Panetolikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.