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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Larisa 1-4 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.87 xG and Panetolikos 0.86 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Panetolikos attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 34% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 33%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 37%, Panetolikos 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 1.00 PPG, Panetolikos 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights