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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Larisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Larisa 1-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.36 xG and OFI 1.39 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.39 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 36% | Draw 26% | OFI 38%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 30%, OFI 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.70 PPG, OFI 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights