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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees OFI travel to AEL FC Arena to take on Larisa. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Larisa — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa at AEL FC Arena this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, OFI have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Larisa 0.70 PPG, OFI 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

In-Play Profile

Larisa in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

OFI in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 50% versus OFI 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 30% | OFI 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.36 xG and OFI 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.701 / defence 1.387 | OFI attack 0.816 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.231. Larisa's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Larisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Larisa games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 36% | Draw 26% | OFI 38%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 60% | OFI 40%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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