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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Larisa 0-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.25 xG and Levadiakos 2.06 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Larisa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.42 against Levadiakos attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 22% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 55%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 25%, Levadiakos 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights