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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.35 xG and Kifisia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 41%, Kifisia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.79 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights