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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Larisa defy the odds to beat Atromitos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa beat Atromitos 2-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.86 xG and Atromitos 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Larisa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Atromitos attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 24% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 43%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Larisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 35%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Larisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights