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Stalemate at Larisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.31 xG and Atromitos 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Larisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.44 against Atromitos attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 31% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 50%, Atromitos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atromitos's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.57 PPG, Atromitos 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights