Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Larisa at 38%, yet in-form Asteras Tripolis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis meet at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Larisa (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Larisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Asteras Tripolis arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Larisa, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Larisa 1–3 Asteras Tripolis — a Asteras Tripolis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 56% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 38% | Asteras Tripolis 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.22 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.783 / defence 1.250 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.783 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Larisa's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Asteras Tripolis's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Larisa's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Asteras Tripolis's projected output up. Data: built from Larisa's last 26 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52.
Result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.63 | Draw 3.05 | Asteras Tripolis 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Larisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asteras Tripolis (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Larisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Larisa's last 10 home games and Asteras Tripolis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Larisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 7 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Larisa 1.22 / Asteras Tripolis 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.783 / def 1.250 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.783 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Larisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Larisa 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 38% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Larisa and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Larisa's attack rating (0.78) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.78x) against Larisa's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Larisa's last 26 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.05
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Larisa and 1.04 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Larisa come into this having played 32 games, going 4W 13D 15L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 0.88 PPG from 32 outings (6W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Larisa against 0.88 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Larisa's home form reads 2W 7D 7L across their last 16 home games, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 16 away games (1W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Larisa (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Larisa
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 13D 15L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 6W 10D 16L in their last 32 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Larisa's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.81 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis, the earliest from September 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Larisa
3
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Larisa have won 0, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 62%, Asteras Tripolis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Larisa and 38% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 31%; Asteras Tripolis in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Larisa and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Larisa's recent matches and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Larisa's recent games and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Larisa's recent matches and 69% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.22 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, Asteras Tripolis 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.78 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.