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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Larisa and Asteras Tripolis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.27 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 43% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 27%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.88 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights