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Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Panserraikos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamia beat Panserraikos 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.26 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Panserraikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Panserraikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamia 0.74 PPG, Panserraikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights