Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panserraikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 2W 0D 8L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Panserraikos's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Panserraikos are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Panserraikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Lamia's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Panserraikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus Panserraikos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Panserraikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.26 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.806 / defence 1.099 | Panserraikos attack 0.934 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Panserraikos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panserraikos (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Panserraikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 1.26 / Panserraikos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.806 / def 1.099 | Panserraikos attack 0.934 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Lamia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Panserraikos xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panserraikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Lamia 2 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panserraikos part of?
Lamia vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 40% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Record (5 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 4W.
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.81x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.38
1.12
Panserraikos xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lamia and 1.12 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 65 games, going 11W 15D 39L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.14 PPG from 65 outings (19W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.74 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 6W 5D 20L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.71 points per game from 31 outings (6W 4D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 11W 15D 39L in their last 65 games (0.74 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panserraikos away?
Lamia's home record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.74 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lamia's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panserraikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Panserraikos 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamia) and 55% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 42% of games; Panserraikos in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 39% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lamia's matches and 55% of Panserraikos's.
Do Lamia and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Panserraikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panserraikos 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.26 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Panserraikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Panserraikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.74 PPG, Panserraikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.