Lamia vs Panetolikos – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Lamia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Lamia 0-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.81 xG and Panetolikos 1.06 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 26% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 40%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 63%, Panetolikos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Panetolikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamia 0.87 PPG, Panetolikos 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights