Lamia vs Panetolikos – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
26%
3.79
34%
2.97
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.86
1.06
Panetolikos xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lamia and 1.06 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.