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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Lamia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Lamia 2-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.97 xG and Levadiakos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 36%, Levadiakos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Levadiakos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights